Summer Box Office: The Top 15 Contenders
With so many movies vying for your attention at the box office over the summer, some are bound to be hits, and others misses. What's going to come out on top this season? The man behind BoxOfficeMojo.com, Brandon Gray, makes his fearless predictions for this year's summer movies -- which ones will be the hits, and why.
1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen ($400M)The previous Transformers grossed nearly $320 million two years ago, and it was a crowd pleaser, which often leads to growth for the second movie. Cap that off with the promise of even greater cataclysmic spectacle, and the result should likely be the highest-grossing picture of the summer. |
2. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince ($315M)It's tough to bet against this phenomenal franchise that consistently hits 'em out of the park commercially. Based on the series' penultimate novel and with a thrilling marketing campaign, it should be business as usual if not slightly better, which could place it second for the summer. |
3. Star Trek ($230M)This is a bold prediction as history points to a lower gross, not to mention the last Star Trek movie and television series went out on a low note. But this is positioned as a reboot a la Batman Begins and Casino Royale, offering the familiarity of culturally iconic trappings with the promise of a grand, visceral adventure. This is the wild card that has the potential to be this year's Iron Man... or it could just fall within the franchise norm. |
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4. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs ($215M)The Ice Age meets The Lost World in this third entry in the far-from-extinct franchise. The previous movie, Ice Age: The Meltdown, maintained the audience of the first, and the new movie is poised to follow suit, buoyed by the incorporation of dinosaurs. |
5. Up ($200M)Adjusted for ticket price inflation, no prior Pixar movie has grossed less than the equivalent of $215 million. This remarkable brand is nine for nine and is one of the few that carries weight with the public. Setting itself apart from the typical computer-animated fare with its adventure of an old man flying around the world in his balloon-laden house, smooth sailing should be ahead, even if it might not reach the heights of past Pixar releases. |
6. X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($190M)The previous X-Men movies delivered huge numbers, Wolverine is the franchise's most prominent character, and the first event movie of the summer usually has the advantage. Ads have presented an operatic revenge tale that should strike a chord with the base. However, weren't those previous X-Men movies already about Wolverine and his origin? |
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7. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian ($185M)The first Night at the Museum was a smash, grossing over $250 million after its Christmas debut two and a half years ago, and the new movie's marketing offers even more family-targeted hijinks. But sequels of this ilk often don't sustain their predecessor's audience, even when people liked the first movie (from Ghostbusters to the recent Pink Panther redux). If this picture comes close or exceeds the first movie, it will be exceptional. |
8. G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra ($165M)After the success of Transformers comes another adaptation of a famous 1980s toy and cartoon, though it's unlikely to be as popular. Without a complete trailer available at this time, it's tough to get a clear read, but its early August positioning has been a primo spot for action event movies in the past (XXX, Bourne Ultimatum, etc.). |
9. Angels & Demons ($145M)The Da Vinci Code made nearly $218 million, and its sequel should have a sizable albeit smaller audience for two key reasons: The Da Vinci Code novel was a far bigger literary sensation than Angels & Demons, and The Da Vinci Code movie itself was not well-liked. |
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10. Terminator Salvation ($140M)The last movie, Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, paled compared to Terminator 2, and the recent television series, "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles," fizzled in the ratings. But with slick advertising and the promise of exploring the story's post-apocalyptic future, Salvation could keep the franchise alive. |
11. Public Enemies ($115M)This period gangster picture counter-programs Ice Age on July 1 and could fit the bill as the adult action alternative, à la past summer gangster hits The Untouchables and Road to Perdition. High profile crime pictures (The Departed, American Gangster) can pay, and the presence of Johnny Depp is a plus. |
12. Brüno ($110M)The reputation of Borat should ensure that this comedy draws a crowd. In its ads, it essentially comes off as a sequel, but a strong set-up of its own has yet to be established. Its fashion milieu would normally be less appealing than Borat's more universal culture clash humor. |
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13. G-Force ($95M)This is Disney's big family comedy for July and concerns an elite team of talking guinea pigs. This type of fare seems perennially popular (Beverly Hills Chihuahua, Alvin and the Chipmunks, Cats and Dogs, etc.), and G-Force follows the playbook. But could it be a too cloying and obvious attempt to cash in on the talking animal sub-genre? |
14. The Proposal ($93M)While this summer's romantic comedies seem more by the numbers than recent hits like Sex and the City and The Devil Wears Prada, this genre cannot be counted out, and if one breaks out it won't be much of a surprise. The Proposal hits the right notes in its trailer, and Sandra Bullock is one of the most popular actresses out there when she's in a Sandra Bullock movie. |
15. The Ugly Truth ($91M)This romantic comedy is being positioned as a battle-of-the-sexes event like past successes The Break-Up and How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days. Rising star Katherine Heigl carried the hit 27 Dresses, and, while co-star Gerard Butler is less proven, there's at least an attempt at an often missing commercial element in other romantic comedies: a strong male lead. |
